Stop worrying about tactical voting

It's that time again, where everyone comes out of the woodwork to tell us what the result of the election will be, and, paradoxically, how to vote to change that outcome.

Everyone has a different set of stats - 2017 election data, European election data, opinion polls, sneakily-worded opinion polls... They might mention Left Unity, or warn of the dire consequences of splitting the vote. One Brexit party ad I saw didn't even have statistics, just a gif of a swingometer yeeting Jeremy Corbyn's head out of the frame.

Every time someone brings out whatever stat they're using as tea leaves today, I bring up this result from 2015:

Image: a map showing Scotland's swing from majority Labour to majority SNP in 2015

That's over 50 seats flipping in the space of 5 years. And politics is only getting more volatile. Labour gained over 10,000 votes in some constituencies between 2015 and 2017. The Brexit Party has risen, but UKIP has not been completely replaced. Sure, it's vanishingly unlikely that the Greens will get an all-out majority, but we're pretty much guaranteed an unpredicatable result in at least a few constituencies.

Sometimes a vote for a minority party is a spoiler, sometimes it's the first vote for the revolution. If people always voted for the lesser of two evils, the Labour party wouldn't even exist. If the left had all voted tactically last election, we would have skipped two years of austerity. No-one can guarantee the outcome of any particular action, we all just have to live with a string of imperfect decisions and unpredictable consequences, and decide where our own priorities lie.

In 2015, I was told I was personally responsible for the destruction of the planet because I didnt vote Green. The classic Labour response goes something like this: How dare they put a tiny chance to save lives later above a high chance to save lives now. They were personally responsible for the deaths of disabled people under austerity! In reality, our votes were each less than 0 .01% responsible for the person sitting in one of 650 seats in the election, and there was no "right" choice, just people with similar values but different priorities.

Don't take this to mean voting isn't worth it. Absolutely do vote, please. It's a relatively low effort-to-outcome ratio, the Labour party will get someone to drive you to the polls if you ask nicely, and it has infinitely more impact than not voting. Although, if you want to be responsible for more than 0.000002% of the result, joining a party and campaigning is a great way to multiply your impact.

I want you to vote Labour next election. Not because we're not the other guys, but because this manifesto is an absolute cracker. Because even if your local candidate is a bit shit, you can get involved and get them to shape up, and meanwhile they'll be whipped to deliver 30 million trees, free broadband, nationalised rail and a national education service. Because this time next year my party will have sent a motion to conference to build on this manifesto and make Labour policy even more ambitious.

But if you vote for another party with similar values? That's fine. I'll see you on the front lines after the election - because left unity is fighting to protect ourselves and those more vulnerable than us from cuts to services, from changing climates, from corporate greed, from hate crimes, from the erosion of our mental health. And no single protest, or food bank donation, or call to a depressed friend will guarantee even 0.000002% of the future will be better - but all those actions together can build a better world.